378. TRUMP VS. ZELENSKY: OVAL OFFICE SHOWDOWN

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Welcome to a Restless Politics live stream. Friday night, I think we're both expecting a quiet night in and just witnessed, I honestly can't find the words, the most extraordinary bust up in the Oval Office between Trump and the vile Vance who really showed his true colours today with President Zelensky of Ukraine. I don't know how much you were able to catch of it, Rory, but I don't think I've ever, ever, ever seen anything like in public. The only thing I ever saw in private, I once saw Vladimir Putin absolutely losing his rag with Tony Blair. But even that was nothing like this, nothing.

Let's just quickly bring people up to date. So quick reminder, Trump campaign saying that if he came into office, he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. He then announced talks in Saudi Arabia with Russia and has gone out calling Zelensky a dictator and saying that he's very unpopular and accusing him of starting the war and saying that the US had spent three times more than it's actually spent in Ukraine. Everybody, of course, very, very worried.

So that then led to an emergency scrambling by President Macron and Prime Minister Stammer who flew over to Washington. And the major objectives of their meetings, which were this week, Macron's meeting was on Monday, Stammer's meetings just happened, was to try to convince Europe to get back into a more moderate position on Ukraine. And really what they were hoping to do is say, okay, Europe will put up much more money. In fact, they were even suggesting Europe will put up all the money provided the US is prepared to continue to sell weapon systems and provide something called security guarantees, which we can get into a bit later.

While this was all been going on, Trump has been making demands to Ukraine for a minerals deal. And in the draft that people saw, he was asking for 50% of all Ukraine's minerals now and in the future, it's going to be about $500 billion worth of minerals for the United States. In return, it appeared for nothing. President Zelensky then has flown out to the United States.

He arrived, there was quite a warm greeting on the steps of the White House where Trump made some jokes about Zelensky's clothes, said it was a great honor that he was visiting. And then they sat down in this rather strange pre-press conference. So there seems to be, and I'd love to ask you about this, just to explain the logistics of this, there seems to be a pre-press conference, then they go to their meeting. And then traditionally, they do a press conference at the end. What's this pre-press conference where the problem started?

Well, I alluded to this in the discussion we had about Keir Starmer and his press conference, his meeting with President Trump yesterday. So what happens is you arrive and traditionally you then go in into the Oval Office. It's a big moment, obviously, particularly if it's the first time a leader's going there as Keir Starmer was yesterday. And then they bring in this thing called the pool spray. And both when I was a journalist, when Ronald Reagan was president, and Bush won, and when I was working with Tony Blair through the Clinton and Bush era, usually you take two or three questions, maybe two each, and it would be very much to set the scene. What this was, what this became was a full scale shouting match. I think deliberate, I think deliberately provoked. It felt to me like an ambush.

And the point is that we were talking this afternoon, we should tell others that we did an interview this afternoon with Martin Wolf, the guy who's now written four books about Trump. And he said something very, very interesting. He said, "you guys keep trying to find out what makes this guy tick. He's not a serious person. He's a reality TV guy. All he cares about," he said, "you remember this, are ratings and conflict. And he knows that to drive his ratings and keep him in the public eye and get all the attention he needs, he has to have conflict. If you were serious about this deal that he's talked about for the last few days, you'd have welcomed Zelensky. Your teams would have done all the work in advance. And then if it was still work to do, you'd have gone for the meeting, done a few pictures, shaken hands, gone for the meeting."

Instead of which they had full on his usual talking points about Biden was terrible. Biden did nothing. There would have been no war if I'd have been president. October 7th wouldn't have happened. Inflation wouldn't have happened. Raging about, and I think this is the crux of his hatred of Zelensky. Revisiting this thing about, you know, Hunter Biden, when he asked for favors, he asked Zelensky to do stuff which Zelensky felt he shouldn't.

But I think the other thing that really, I don't know whether it should have shocked me, but it did shock me. Zelensky's an elected president of Ukraine. Very important country, right at the height of things. There's nothing wrong with people in the meetings coming in, but the way Vance came in was utterly disgusting. And it made me think it was a deliberate, intimidating, bullying behavior.

Let me do a quick explainer again for people who didn't view it and then get your analysis on it. So the meeting started relatively calmly in a normal way. And then a journalist from Polish radio asked quite a direct question about whether it made sense for Trump to trust Putin. And at that point, President Trump started attacking Zelensky. He started saying that Zelensky had a very bad attitude towards Putin. And then J.D. Vance, apropos of not very much, suddenly weighed in and made a speech mocking Biden, saying America had been chest thumping and saying that America had made no attempts to do deals, but he, Trump, was going to bring peace. And it was at that point that Zelensky felt that he needed to stand up for himself. And he said, and I think partly offended, maybe, that the vice president had interrupted in this way. He turned to J.D. Vance and he said, "look, we did a lot of deals. Macron, Merkel, myself, we signed deals with Putin."

He promised we did gas deals and he broke all those ceasefire agreements and deals. And then when Vance challenged him again on diplomacy, Zelensky said, what diplomacy? And eventually said, and have you actually ever even visited Ukraine? And it was at that point that things really began to get out of control, because they started shouting at him, being disrespectful, not showing enough gratitude to the United States. You don't have any cards. Let me tell you, this is very rude. You mustn't talk to us like this. You've done enough talking. Okay. Over to you for analysis.

Now I've given a little. Yeah, that's what made me think it was sort of deliberate bullying, intimidating behavior, because they kept putting points to Zelensky, which he tried to respond to, and then they just sort of shouted over him. And the other thing that Vance said, he said at one point, he essentially, he appeared to be saying that you don't have any, you don't have any soldiers left. At one point, Trump also said, all your cities have been flattened. And Zelensky said, no, because the truth is, we said this on the podcast last week, 20% has been occupied, but most of the big cities in Ukraine, they're functioning. It's not easy, but they're functioning.

And so they kept, and the other point that both Macron and Stahmer had pushed back on this thing that Europe just gets, Europe's getting all the money back and we paid more than Europe. Zelensky very factually, very calmly said, no, Europe has paid as much. Europe has given as much. And we're very grateful to you. We're very grateful to them. Vance, literally, his first words were, have you actually said, thank you. And Zelensky again, very calm. And by the way, I went back and watched the whole thing again. It was 50 minutes. Zelensky started by saying thank you to the American people. Started, thank you for the invitation. Thank you for the American people.

So Vance sits there, utterly vile that man. I've been thinking this for a while about Vance. He's utterly vile and you really saw it today. And he basically said, have you ever said thank you? When are we going to get gratitude? That triggers Trump to say, when are we going to get gratitude? I felt that Zelensky did look slightly on the edge, hardly surprising. He's been a war leader for three years. He's been flying around the world. Vance also said, all you do are these propaganda tours. He talked about taking people to Ukraine on propaganda tours. And it was, you're not showing, I always thought he was going to say free speech. You're not showing us the whole picture.

And so as a result, it got worse. And instead of Trump, if Trump was a serious person, a serious diplomat, the minute he sensed it going wrong, unless he wanted it to go wrong, he just said, okay, you've had your questions. You've had your pictures. We're now going to do the meeting. We'll speak to you later that have gone and tried to resolve it. Instead of which he went, you, you, you, another question, another question. It was disgusting. And then the story, at least that's just been printed in The Independent is that they then went into an hour of meetings. And at the end of that hour, Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, asked Zelensky to leave the building. And Trump then posted on Truth Social saying this guy isn't interested in peace.

And part of the problem of why Zelensky is on edge, presumably, is that he's in an impossible situation. Trump has been asking for $500 billion, which is much more than the United States has given and offering nothing in return. And Zelensky has been sitting on his tongue being as polite as he can hoping, because the Europeans have been encouraging to believe this, that maybe if he gave a minerals deal, maybe if the Europeans put up the money, the United States would provide some kind of security guarantee in return. But that phrase security guarantee hasn't happened at all.

And can I just try to dig into this maybe just for a little bit so that we get into the question of what these different deals are, what it is that Trump seems to want, what Putin seems to want, what Europe seems to want, what Zelensky seems to want. So let's start with Europe and Zelensky. Their starting point, which was pretty similar to President Biden's starting point, was that Russian economy is in trouble. Russia has been making advances, but very, very slowly. I think it was you that said it would take 88 years for Russia to be able to conquer the whole of Ukraine at this rate. Yeah. And that you could get a deal in place in which maybe Putin held on to bits of eastern Ukraine, but western Ukraine was fully secured. And fully secured for Zelensky means becoming part of the European Union and NATO. And becoming part of NATO means Article 5 protection, which basically means that if Putin stepped foot into that part of Ukraine, NATO will be obliged to respond with a nuclear missile strike. It's pretty, pretty extreme stuff.

Putin's demand, on the other hand, has been that he gets full recognition for the territory he's taken. He gets more territory. He's got more bits of territory that he wants. He wants Ukraine completely demilitarized. He wants Zelensky gone. He wants all sanctions lifted and eastern Ukraine recognized as part of Russia. And it now, I think, is increasingly clear that the Trump plan is the Putin plan. And why? Well, maybe these reasons. Number one, he may have a very strange relationship to Putin. And you talked about that a little bit. He's got some thing in his head that Putin backed him over Hunter Biden. Secondly, there are people in Trump's administration who have a national security ploy where they believe that China is the priority, Russia is the distraction. And some of the more imaginative ones even believe they might be able to peel Russia off and use it as an ally against China. Thirdly, sense that he feels he's wasting a lot of money. Fourthly, he's got a lot of isolationists in MAGA behind him. And I think finally, he wants to present himself as the great peacemaker. He wants to be able to come in and say, I ended this war.

Right back over to you. Well, I think this thing about being the great peacemaker and the great dealmaker, and when he saw Macron on Monday, he was saying, you know, all my life is deals. You have to understand I'm a dealmaker. I make great deals. Putin has completely played him on this. Totally played him. Putin's first big step was to get back at the top table. And the top table when it comes to pretty much any big international issue with the UN so weak at the moment is the United States. So he has a one-on-one phone call. That's where this all started. Trump came out and said, I've had this long chat with Putin. And he started to say, I know him and I trust him and all this. That was the other thing that I think triggered Zelensky slightly, was he's sitting there, his country having been invaded, Trump not having said a single word of criticism, pretty much since he returned to office, of Putin. And he's saying, yeah, I believe him. I believe the guy. If he says he won't invade, he won't invade.

And then into this whole mineral thing. And the minerals, of course, I hadn't quite realized that so much of the mineral wealth that we're talking about. I had a very good podcast, the German podcast today with a woman called Florence Gauposit. She works for NATO in Rome. And I hadn't quite realized the extent to which a lot of these rare earth and minerals are in the occupied part. And so Zelensky has been bullied into doing this deal, which, as you say, 500 billion, which Ben Wallace on the radio earlier was calling blatant extortion, which Scaramucci has called extortion, which I think you have as well. And so he's basically being put in there and told, we're going to sign this deal. We're going to sign this deal.

And it was perfectly obvious that the groundwork hadn't been done. It wasn't like, you know, Keir Starmer knew that Trump was going to accept the state visit, and they knew they were going to say Chagos Islands because the work had been done. That hadn't happened. And that is not serious diplomacy. So I think, I do think Michael Wall's point about him just not being serious. Now, what he will feel now, I don't know. As you say, the MAGA crowd, and it's actually pathetic.

Do you remember when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister? And anytime there was a scandal, the cabinet were given these cut and paste tweets by Dominic Cummings to say, you know, well, the Trump cabinet is now doing the same, including Marco Rubio, who, by the way, looked absolutely sick in that meeting.

Just to remind listeners a little on Marco Rubio and why he looks sick. So Marco Rubio was one of the leading voices in the Senate of skepticism towards Putin. He was the guy who used to ask other people in confirmation hearings, as I think we've discussed in the podcast, is Putin a dictator? He has always been on the record saying you can never trust Putin. Putin doesn't want to deal. All he wants to do is weaken the United States.

And now he's having to claim that he believes Trump and that he believes Trump's, you know, fundamental claim, which is Trump thinks he can hand over Ukraine to Putin. And he sort of implies that he thinks and then Europe will be safe, and that NATO will be safe, and Putin will back him on China. All this is unbelievably naive, because he's got no leverage over Putin on Europe. He's got no leverage over Putin on NATO. He's got no, by which I mean, now that he's signaled that he doesn't believe in security guarantees, I'm not quite sure where NATO is at all.

Let me read you his tweet, which is the same tweet that lots of the others put up. "Thank you, POTUS, President of the United States, for standing up for America in a way that no president has ever had the courage to do before. Thank you for putting America first. America is with you." Now, you've sat in the meeting. You've seen what's gone on. Is that a serious Secretary of State who is sitting there? Just look at his face there. Look at how he looks during the meeting. He knows it's going really, really badly. And yet he cannot bring himself afterwards to do anything other than what he's told to do.

And by the way, Roy, you talked about some of the questions. And as with Macron, they clearly have planted questions. One of the questions, and Trump was giving the guy a little wink, was this guy who said to Zelensky, couldn't you have actually worn a suit? Now, Zelensky, as we all know, is dressed like that for a reason, to show that his country's at war. And I think a lot of people respected him for that. So Zelensky rightly just sort of batted it off. But then Trump gave his little wink to the guy, as if to say, thanks for that. They gave him a little punch as well.

And I just feel that if you don't have a serious government in the White House at this time, you have Trump. And Putin and his FSB guys would have been laughing their heads off, watching every single minute of it. But what it means now, I think, for the UK, for France, for Germany, for Canada, for Australia, for other countries. And this summit that Keir Starmer is hosting now in London on Sunday is unbelievably important. I'm hoping Zelensky is still coming. And I think that Europe now really has to step up.

You may end up with somebody having to negotiate, like Starmer or Macron, to negotiate to get Trump back in the same room as Zelensky. Let me play the full pessimistic picture here. So basically, Macron and Starmer's trips to Washington seem now to have been wasted. Their objective was to get there before Zelensky, get US security guarantees. Macron believes that he charmed Trump to do that. Starmer famously turned up with a letter from the king. They got a lot of sort of warm smiles and no real language.

And the end of it is the week ends with this incredibly aggressive humiliation of Zelensky. So what can we read from this? I think the worst case scenario is this, and it seems increasingly as though it's probable. So not just a worst case scenario, it's probably what's going to likely happen. If Trump holds to his current position, he will withdraw US support from Ukraine. He will withdraw all US military assets from Ukraine. He will withdraw all US money from Ukraine. But worse than that, he will also not allow European countries to continue to buy American systems in order to continue the war in Ukraine. He will wash his hands of Zelensky. He will say, I tried to make a deal. You wouldn't sign the minerals deal. I hand you over to Putin. And that is, I'm afraid, unbelievably difficult.

We can talk on this podcast about Europe stepping up. But at that point, it's no longer US and Europe's war. It's Europe's war only. And there are two questions for that. Can Europe fight that war? And would Europe want to fight that war? Can Europe fight that war? Well, very, very difficult. In the next two years, it would take at least 24 months before Europe was in any position to replace a lot of the key US equipment. Would Europe want to fight that war? Does Macron have the support, the strength in his own parliament? Does Stahmer, my sense is Stahmer hasn't been pitching himself as the grand big picture international statesman. Is he going to want to take the full burden of the Ukraine war? And what's really involved?

Well, I think the next thing that will happen is Putin will start advancing very, very fast. Because without US anti aircraft missiles, he's going to be able to get helicopters, drones, much, much closer. Without US artillery, he's going to be able to push his artillery much closer. Without US electronic warfare, the drones will be able to take out the Ukrainian tanks, etc, etc. So I think we are in a situation in which almost certainly, Putin can guarantee that he can radically increase his territory. But I think it's not impossible that Putin could march all the way through Kiev to Moldova.

The Dmitry Medvedev, who is the form the guy who pretended to be president when Trump was in his when Putin was in his interregnum, has just tweeted the insolent pig finally got a proper slap down in the Oval Office. Trump is right, the Kiev regime is gambling with World War Three. This is what we've seen since the election is Russian delight at pretty much everything that Trump says and does. I mean, you really do begin to wonder, we talked on the podcast the other day about, you know, the question we keep being asked is, what is Putin got on Trump? And we keep this goes back to the discussion with Michael Wolff, we keep trying to find strategic and tactical and psychological reasons as to why Trump operates as he does. But it may there may be something very, very simple behind this.

And I but I think that you what I saw in Zelensky as well. And I honestly, I felt the sight of I think Zelensky is an incredibly courageous guy. He's an unbelievable communicator. He's the way that he's kept going for three years, kept traveling around the world or his propaganda tours, as Vance called it. But I think that I sort of felt you did feel he was on edge, you felt that even he was shocked. He knew, listen, when you've been called a dictator, when you have to listen to Trump saying, you know, Russia, Ukraine started the war, you can see why he might arrive pretty angry, but he arrived looking like he was he was kind of, you know, serious about trying to get something done. But then it was like just these little stuff. First of all, they start chipping away. And then the big stuff, these planted questions coming in.

Yeah, we'd kind of think about them. I should tell you, by the way, Friedrich Merz, the soon to be new German chancellor, has tweeted out of English, dear Vladimir, we stand with Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war. And he's put brackets FM, which means that I am tweeting this by self. This is not by office. I hope that Kirstarma does something similar. I hope Macron does something similar. I hope Tusk does something similar.

I know why Macron and Kirstarma, and I still think they did the right thing in going, and I think they did the right thing in stroking his ego and, you know, trying to get that balance between pandering to the narcissist and actually working on him. Now, he has ended up in a worse place, even worse place. But you've just got to keep going.

I should say, by the way, as well, Roy, the guy who asked Zelensky about, you know, whether he, and as you said earlier, Trump commented on Zelensky's clothes. Why did none of the cabinet say to Elon Musk when he turned up in the cabinet meeting? Why don't you wear a fucking suit? Anyway, sorry, that's just me.

Here's a question, Michael K. Question, lads, what does Zelensky do next? Well, he comes to London, he comes to London, but in terms of his military options, there's a very, very small possibility for him, which is that he tries to mobilize. This is the really nasty scenario. He tries to do a full mobilization. So he hasn't done full conscription yet of the entire Ukrainian population. And he leans into urban warfare. He hopes he doesn't lose all his sea access. He tries to hold on to as much territory as he can, while Europe builds up its defenses and tries to buy that critical 18 months, two years until Europe's in a position to provide. But that's a lot of ifs. That's assuming a lot about the Ukrainian people. That's assuming a lot about morale in Ukraine. That's assuming a lot about European willingness to do that. And that's assuming a lot about Russia, because Russia would then throw everything that it had against him.

It's interesting. We're getting thousands of comments here, and they're going so fast down the thing, I can't stop them. Here's a good question for you, Rory. Would Turkey step up to help Ukraine? Yes. So Turkey has been very interesting, and it's a really, really important player here. So Turkey has a traditional rivalry with Russia in the Black Sea, and in Syria, as people know. Turkey has a pretty formidable army, and an army that actually has a lot of combat experience and is prepared to fight. Turkey's been providing a lot of drones to Ukraine, and Turkey has offered to get involved on the ground. So any European defense alliance that you tried to put around Ukraine would definitely have to include Turkey. And it would certainly try to pull in Japan, South Korea, Australia, those major economies. But you're still missing critical things. Part of this is obviously our fault. We never developed enough anti-aircraft missile capacity. We never developed proper satellite coordination. We haven't got a proper replacement for Starlink. We're not good enough at electronic warfare. There are these gaping holes. And whether it's true they take two years to fill, I suppose some people might say we move much faster during the Second World War, but it's a really, really big lift.

And I think the problem is that you and I and many, many people on these comments are desperately thinking, what do we do to support Ukraine in the absence of the US? It's much more difficult to face the possibility that the odds are really against you if the US pulls out. I'm really against it. Sure. And, you know, we talked on the main podcast this week about, you know, we are virtually all of our defenses are so tied into American systems and to American cooperation because we've always assumed that was going to be there. And that's what you have to keep again, defense forces.

Listen, there'll be a lot of people in the American military tonight who are thinking, what the F has he done? There'll be a lot of people in American intelligence thinking, what the hell has he done? So there will be, there'll still be that cooperation going on. But meanwhile, I think we just have to face, Friedrich Merck said it, you know, on the night he was elected, on the night he won the election, he said, you know, we've got to become more independent of America. We've got to understand they're not as reliable as they were.

There's another question there, Bobby, does this leave Turkey as the only power that can supply Ukraine with the security it needs for the next 24 months? Well, I think it's going to be a combination of powers that do that.

The other big story in the UK today, Roy, that probably would have been, in fact, it was leading the news until all this was Annalise Dodds resigning as development minister. And she was making the point, as we did on our live stream about the aid cuts the other day, that this sort of opens the door to Russia and China in that space. But I actually think now what a combination of all these things happening. She says in her resignation letter that she and I thought it was very dignified of her not to resign until Keir got back from his visit to Trump. That would have been a disaster if that happened in the middle of it.

But I think it was interesting that she pointed out, I thought we were going to have discussions about whether we could actually look at Rachel Reeves fiscal rules and also the tax situation. I think at some point in the not too distant future, the country, and we're not the only country this is going to apply to, right across Europe, we're going to have to really ramp up defence spending. And that is going to, you know, we talk about tough choices, it's going to mean really tough choices, not least related to fiscal rules and taxation.

So, Alison, we talked about this, which is that Labour felt that their only way of winning the election was to promise not to raise the taxes which make up 75% of our revenues, so VAT, corporation tax, income tax, national insurance. And they came out of that election, found themselves in a fiscal hole, felt that their only option was to raise employers' national insurance, very damaging tax. They need to get back, if they're going to raise more money for things like defence, to those broad-based taxes. And this was their opportunity to do it.

It was very, very sad that Starmer decided that the way to do it was to halve, basically, international development spending from where it was when I was Secretary of State. Potentially, I mean, we can get into this a bit more, potentially even breaking manifesto commitments, legal commitments in order to do it. But the bigger point was this, presumably, was his political opportunity to say, Trump, Ukraine, the world situation, this is a good reason which even conservatives, I would argue, could buy into to actually look at raising some of the main taxes. Yeah.

Samuel Yates here, Roy, with a very sort of stay-awake-at-night question. Could you envision a scenario where the UK is at war with Russia but the USA is not? That's a big thing because, of course, the entire sort of thinking about NATO is about preventing war and seeing Russia as the enemy, as it were, for a lot of its period. There have been moments of rapprochement that have gone a bit, but in recent years, that's gone away again. But what you have a sense of now is that Trump is an ally of Putin and most of the other countries that thought they were allies of the United States are not allies of Putin. So Samuel, I hope not, but I think that's the kind of scenario planning that now does have to be thought about. Yeah.

I mean, there's clearly something which we've talked about before. This Michael Wolff interview, I recommend to people who haven't heard it. Well, we haven't seen it yet, Roy, so they can't have heard it.

They can't have heard it. He focuses a lot on this idea that Trump's not serious. Look, I agree with that, but I think that's also a bit misleading because I think, as you've pointed out, what he does in the world is certainly serious. So the question of whether or not he himself is serious is a little bit misleading. Yeah, the impact of what he does is incredibly serious. And I think it's also true that maybe Michael Wolff overdoes this idea that there's nothing constant about Trump. I think there are certain things that are constant about Trump. And one of them is a longstanding admiration for strongmen, a longstanding admiration for Vladimir Putin, a sense that the United States should be dominating the Americas, that Russia should be dominating Eastern Europe, and implicitly that China should be dominating Asia seems to be somewhere in the back of his head.

And then there's other stuff too. He clearly is interested consistently in tariffs, in immigration, and it's getting more ideological. I mean, this is the other thing that I think we haven't fully articulated yet. This is a much more ideological administration than Trump's first presidency because Musk and Vance, in particular, have become theorists, very strange theorists on democracy, freedom of speech, getting in behind these far right groups in Europe, undermining our own democracies from within. That wasn't part of Trump's playbook last time. And this stuff, authoritarian, pretty fascist in nature, feeds in pretty well to stealing minerals from Ukraine, giving Putin leeway. And as I think that question points out, I don't think it's really an open question anymore, whether the US is on Russia's side or Europe's side. It is clearly on Russia's side. I mean, this decision and this spectacle, this horrifying spectacle, is Trump declaring for Russia against Europe.

Margaret Gowdy, where is Keir Starmer? Why no statement yet? European leaders are making statements of support. Listen, they'll be thinking things through. They'll be, everyone will have followed this. Everyone will be aware of what's gone on. Keir Starmer now has to chair this meeting on Sunday. It's going to be very, very consequential. I really, I think they're talking about already about 18 European leaders who are due to be there. I hope that all European leaders say, by the way, I want to be there too. I think this is one of those moments where you just have to show real solidarity with Zelensky. And, you know, you said there that Trump admires strongman leaders. The strength that Zelensky has shown as a, do you remember, let's go back three years. Joe Biden said to him right at the start, listen, Vladimir, this is going to be really, really tough. If you want us to get you out of there, we can do it. And Zelensky was basically offended even at the suggestion. And if you remember the Kremlin spread a story that Zelensky had fled and he posted a selfie of himself with his troops. I think he's, I think Zelensky has got real strength, real courage. And let's never forget, you know, Donald Trump, bone spurs.

We had a question here. Is this the start of World War III from Sue Lewis? Let me try to take that seriously because it's obviously sounds terrifying, but just explain. Well, it's also, it's what Trump said to Zelensky. You're risking World War III. And as usual with Trump, he's flipped it around in a bizarre way because it is he that's bringing us closer to World War III. So essentially the way that we prevented World War III, in other words, nuclear war, since the invention of the atom bomb was through this extraordinary nuclear deterrence. And right at the heart of nuclear deterrence was NATO. And the idea was that Russia and Soviet Union would not attack NATO countries and NATO would not attack Russia and Soviet Union because of these nuclear weapons. And it was psychological. I mean, that, and this is why what Trump has done is so unbelievably devastating.

"Deterrence only works if people have faith that you're going to use it. And for 80 years, for better or for worse, Russia has believed that the United States would stand behind its Article V guarantees of NATO and that there was a good chance they would use nuclear weapons to defend NATO territory. In other words, we've had peace and avoided nuclear war paradoxically because of the threat of nuclear war."

"What will happen now almost certainly is that Putin will sense that Trump is no longer willing to defend somewhere like Lithuania. Lithuania is pretty easy for Putin to get into. In fact, he has a small bit of territory which he can join together by going through Lithuania. And I think we can take it as read that Trump would not be firing nuclear weapons at Putin were he to go into Lithuania. But Lithuania is a NATO country. So once he's taken one NATO country, then the whole thing opens up. And then the thing that leads to World War III, of course, isn't just Putin. It's the way in which Europe responds."

"How does Poland respond? Well, Poland, of course, you know, has spent a lot of its historical existence being part of Russia, being subjugated by the Soviet Union. It's a pretty recent experience. The Baltics were part of the Soviet Union itself. So for those countries, they will then respond violently to try to defend themselves. And the risk of war increases dramatically."

"There's also, there's quite a couple of comments there, people saying that you said the real winner tonight was Putin. The real winner tonight is actually China. And of course, that's the other thing that if we do get into a situation where the whole of Europe is feeling that, you know, we have to focus on this, then China and America is not going to engage. Then China starts to feel a lot more relaxed about Taiwan."

"Callum Halliday, what do you think of the future of the Five Eyes Agreement? This is whereby the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have major intelligence sharing going on. And we talked about that when we did a podcast with David McCloskey, from the rest is classified. And he was making the point that, you know, it just makes sense that when you have people who are operating with similar systems, he said, if you've got, what did he say is you've got 20 of, America's providing 20, UK's providing five, three Canada, two Australia, one New Zealand. And it made sense. But when you see the extent to which the Americans now appear to be, frankly, closer to Putin than they are to NATO. And when you see people like Tulsi Gabbard and the guy, the FBI in charge, then you do start to wonder, and you do start to think about whether they can be relied upon."

"Yeah. Well, James, when he says Five Eyes is dead, stop sharing intelligence. Now the, the one of the other things that happens with the Five Eyes system is that the United Kingdom will shut down intelligence stations in other countries, relying on the United States to then fill the intelligence gap. Yeah, yeah. And we've been doing this for many, many years. So, and we hand over agents, the running of agents, we hand over classified material. In other words, the whole design of the British, Australian, New Zealand, Canadian intelligence services are designed around the CIA, and assume that we can specialize in areas and the CIA will provide us intelligence on areas where we don't have a presence. That will now cease, because we will assume now that Trump will order the CIA not to share that kind of intelligence with us, at which point we would then have to develop far, far larger."

"Absolutely. And, and the, there's a question here, Freddie, sorry, a couple of things here that relate to that. Freddie Johnson, American here, Freddie's an American. Welcome, Freddie. We still like Americans. It's just your president, your vice president, we have a bit of trouble with this evening."

Horrifyingly, he says Trump is doing everything in his power to align the US with Russia, politically, militarily, economically. And Martin Smith, LBC is saying that TASS was allowed into the pool spray, but Reuters and AP were kept out.

Did you hear about this, Roy, that TASS, that's the sort of Soviet, the Russian news agency, somehow, even though they weren't on the list, got into the Oval Office and were, and were putting it out live.

The other thing that's really weird about this American system, sorry to go back to the trivias of media management, is that you're talking about, the White House is one of the most consequential political buildings in the world. America is one of the most media conscious countries in the world. But they still have this system where you have the pool spray at the top, and the reporters are all in there telling you everything that's being said, but the pictures don't come out for about 20 minutes. It's the weirdest thing. So anyway, the guy from TASS was in there reporting live to Moscow, which just sort of sums the whole damn thing up, I think.

Here's the last one for me, before we wrap up. Rather an interesting one from Ihsan Qazi. He says, what if China steps in and gives Ukraine security guarantees and ends the war for 25% of the minerals? The US has done in that case. Now, I think Ihsan's point is really interesting. China has been trying to present itself as the dealmaker, the arbiter between Ukraine and Russia. China sees an enormous opportunity in America's retreat. It's getting into Nepal. It's turning up in the Middle East. It's putting out nice statements to Europe saying, you know, we're a stable, reliable security partner. So I think Ihsan may be being too imaginative, but I think there's something in it. I wouldn't be too surprised if we don't begin to see China stepping forward over the next few days and weeks, trying to insert itself into the middle of this position as the US loses its power.

Yeah. Rory, I'm going to close by pointing out that a lot of the questions, a lot of the comments coming in, should Britain withdraw the offer of a state visit? What will King Charles be thinking as he watches all this? Now, I don't know anybody who's really close to King Charles to sort of just be able to pick up a phone. Do you know anybody who could sort of maybe give me some indication of that?

This is a very, very unfair question. But look, it's a really, really difficult position now that the King is in. And remember, Canadians are now very upset. I've been looking at the Canadian media all day. They really weren't. I mean, I've spoken to sources close to Keir Starmer, who actually said that he was about to say, we didn't discuss it, but when Trump actually sort of cut in and called another question.

But Canadian media today is absolutely on the rampage about this idea that the head of state, the head of our state, who is also the head of the Canadian state, is giving a state visit to this guy who says he's going to take over Canada. And I'm afraid this will have been an idea from the Prime Minister, this is not something that the King or Buckingham Palace generates.

Ah, here we go. Sources close to the King discussing himself at the state visit. There's a great question here, Roy. Let's close on this one. Graeme Appleby, should we be recalling the British ambassador? We can't recall Peter when he's just arrived. We can't do that. That would be cruel.

Anyway, I feel a little bit better than I did. But honestly, when I was watching it, I can't remember the last time I felt so angry at watching it. It's very, very rare in world events that you get a single moment. I mean, you got that with the assassination of the Archduke in Sarajevo starting the First World War. This moment will become one of the most visible, extraordinary, excruciating moments where the Western alliance fell apart. This is the moment where... Or something else happens.

But what it is definitely, that was a historic meeting. The thing that came into my head was happening, was it Khrushchev bragging his shoe on the desk at the United Nations or it was... I mean, you just know the minute it started to kick off, I was actually doing something else and just had it over here. And the minute it started to kick off, I thought, oh my God. And I'm still thinking, oh my God. But you just got to hope that people, grownups, stand up and try to get this thing to a better place, but it's going to be bloody hard.

And you were right to pull me up, of course, because actually what we learn from these things is you never know quite what happens. There are third, fourth, fifth consequences from these kinds of things. And tracking them through in the chaos of this world, Trump's mind is unbelievably difficult. We've talked about some of them. We've talked about what could happen with China, what could happen with Lithuania. We've talked about how Putin might or might not respond, how Zelensky might or might not respond, the options that Britain might or might not have, France might or might not have, whether there's any chance at all that Trump could change his mind. But there's no doubt that all these questions are questions that were not being asked in October of last year. And they're questions that go to the very, very heart of international security.

Yeah. Well, it's good to talk to you, Zubin Roy. And I just want to thank everybody for tuning in. And if you want even more podcaster-y, then our colleagues at the Rest is Politics US, Anthony Scaramucci and Katty Kay, they're about to go live and do a live podcast very shortly as well. So obviously, we don't want as many people to listen to that as listen to us, because we are the numero uno in the rest is castle. But the Mooch and Katty are both brilliant, and I'm sure they'll have an awful lot to say about what was a truly horrific, but unbelievably consequential meeting and non-press conference in the White House. See you soon. See you soon.

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